[BRIGADE] PJB: Is Iran Nearing a Bomb?
Published: Tue, 09/29/09
by Patrick J. Buchanan
That Iran is building a secret underground facility near the holy
city of Qom, under custody of the Revolutionary Guard -- too small
to be a production center for nuclear fuel, but just right for the
enrichment of uranium to weapons grade -- is grounds for concern,
but not panic.
Heretofore, all of Iran's nuclear facilities, even the enrichment
plant at Natanz -- kept secret before exiles blew the whistle in
2002 -- have been consistent with a peaceful nuclear program.
Iran has also been on solid ground in claiming that, as signatory
to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, she has a right to enrich uranium
and operate nuclear plants, as long as she complies with treaty
obligations.
Under the Safeguard Agreement to the NPT, these include
notification, six months before a nuclear facility goes operational.
According to U.S. officials, construction of this site began in
2006 and is only months from completion. And Tehran did not report
it to the International Atomic Energy Agency until a week ago, when
they were tipped the Americans were onto it and about to go public.
Iran's explanation: This facility is benign, a backup to Natanz, to
enable Iran to continue enriching uranium to fuel grade, should
America or Israel bomb Natanz. It is a hedge against attack. And
contrary to what Barack Obama implies, the facility is designed to
enrich uranium only to the 5 percent needed for nuclear fuel, not
the 90 percent needed for nuclear weapons.
Still, the burden of proof is now upon Tehran.
President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei must convince IAEA
inspectors this small secret facility that can house only 3,000
centrifuges has the same purpose as Natanz, which can house 58,000.
Or they will be exposed as liars -- to the West, to the Russians
who have served as their defense counsel and to their own people.
For while Iranians are near unanimous in backing their national
right to peaceful nuclear power, they do not all want nuclear
weapons. And the Ayatollah has declared, ex cathedra, that Iran is
not seeking them, and possession or use of such weapons is immoral
and contrary to the teachings of Islam.
If Obama is right that the secret facility is "inconsistent with a
peaceful program," but compatible with a weapons program, Ayatollah
Khamenei has a credibility problem the size of Andrei Gromyko's,
when he assured President Kennedy there were no Soviet missiles in
Cuba. And President Kennedy had the photos in his desk.
Diplomats have been called honest men sent abroad to lie for their
country. But ayatollahs, as holy men, are not supposed to be
descending to diplomatic duplicity.
Obama's dramatic announcement represents a coup for U.S.
intelligence, but it also raises questions.
Reportedly, we have known of this Qom facility "for several years."
Yet, in late 2007, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) said
that U.S. agencies had "moderate confidence" that Iran had ended
any nuclear weapons program in 2003.
In August, Walter Pincus, in a Washington Post story -- "Iran Years
From Fuel for Bomb, Report Says" -- wrote, "Despite Iran's progress
since 2007 toward producing enriched uranium, the State Department
intelligence analysts continue to think that Tehran will not be
able to produce weapons-grade material before 2013."
This was the judgment of the State Department Bureau of
Intelligence and Research, based on "Iran's technical capability."
Query: If State's top intelligence analysts, this year, did not
think Iran could enrich to weapons grade until 2013, had they been
kept in the dark about the secret facility near Qom?
Two weeks ago, in a Web exclusive, Mark Hosenball wrote, "The U.S.
intelligence community is reporting to the White House that Iran
has not restarted its nuclear weapons development program, two
counter-proliferation officials tell Newsweek."
The officials told the White House the conclusion of the 2007 NIE
-- i.e., Iran had halted its weapons program in 2003 -- stood.
Were these two counter-proliferation officials also out of the loop
on the secret site? Or did they know of it, but fail to share the
sense of alarm and urgency President Obama showed last week?
Despite last week's revelation, the Obama policy of talking to
Tehran makes sense. Whatever the ayatollah's intentions, IAEA
inspectors have his lone ton of low-enriched uranium at Natanz
under observation. To enrich it to weapons grade, it must be moved.
America's twin goals here are correct, compatible and by no means
unattainable: no nukes in Iran, no war with Iran.
Bombing would unite that divided country behind a regime whose
repressed people detest far more than we, as they have to live
under it. Patience and perseverance, as in the Cold War, may be
rewarded with the disintegration of a state that is today divided
against itself.
We outlasted the Red czars. We will outlast the ayatollahs.
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