[BRIGADE] GOP: Dead Men Walking
Published: Fri, 10/17/08
"We haven't seen a poll out of South Carolina in more than three
weeks, and there's a chance commercial pilot Bob Conley (D) could
pull ahead of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). Conley performed strongly in
a recent debate, hitting Graham and Washington on the bailout.
Graham, tied more closely than any lawmaker to McCain, could take a
bigger hit than most..."
Brigade, see 2 articles below:
-- An analysis of the Bob Conley / Lindsay Graham debate in SC. It
includes a link to view the debate video. Bob looked and spoke like
a US Senator -- Graham appeared short, rumpled and well, just look
at the photo on Bob's website!
http://www.bobconleyforsenate.com
Also see the Human Events piece, "Republican Disaster at Hand."
Looks like the GOP is going down. The good news is fellow Buchanan
Brigader and Ron Paul supporter, Bob Conley might really win the U.S.
Senate seat occupied by Open-Border Neocon Lindsay Graham.
Go to Bob's website and send him a contribution -- let's give him a
final push over the top!
http://www.bobconleyforsenate.com/
For the Cause,
Linda
PS -- Pat Buchanan's column is not out yet. I'll send it soon as
I get a copy.
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Analysis of the Conley-Graham Debate
by NJ Muller
Bob Conley turned in a superb performance against career politician
Lindsey Graham during Saturday's televised debate. It appeared that
Conley was the veteran and Graham the amateur in Conley's first
major debate.
Conley was unflappable and showed a detailed knowledge of all
policy issues while Graham was flustered and on the defensive most
of the night.
Graham, despite many years in Washington, made several gaffes.
* He invited a 61-year old laid-off worker, nearing retirement,
to go to technical school!
* He suggested that we needed to bring in German engineers to
do work here, apparently unaware that there are thousands of
unemployed and underemployed American engineers ready, willing and
able to work.
* He announced he favored more federal spending on education at
a time when the federal government is hopelessly in debt. At the
same time, he described himself as a premier opponent of higher
taxes.
* He made a cryptic remark that implied he wished to escalate
the war in Afghanistan by "involving" Pakistan, a nuclear power.
* When asked what he had done about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
Graham cited not what he had done, but what John McCain had done
about it. Huh? Graham himself waited ten years after being in
Congress to issue any warnings.
* He attacked Conley for saying we were "occupying" Iraq and
Afghanistan when he himself has used the same term about Iraq.
* Graham repeatedly abdicated his constitutional role as a
senator over spending and war powers and said he would do what the
generals tell him to do.
The debate showed sharp contrasts between Conley and Graham on the
major issues:
* On Iraq, Conley believes that the troops have completed their
mission and need to come home. Graham, when pressed, could not give
a straight answer as to when the troops could come home. Frankly,
he sounded like John McCain who said it might be a "hundred years."
* On Afghanistan, Conley opposes our attempt to use troops to
build a nation there. Again, Graham wants us to stay there
indefinitely until utopia is established. He wants more troops
there and possibly wants to invade Pakistan as well. Senators
should not make flippant comments about invading nuclear powers!
* On the Wall Street bailout, Conley was against it and said it
wouldn't work. Graham supported it. Last week's events in the stock
market showed Conley was right.
* Graham believes in the theory of global warming which implies
he favors massive new government programs to deal with it. Conley,
an engineer, is more skeptical.
* Conley said he wanted to "audit the Fed," whose overheated
printing press is at the root of the real estate bubble according
to leading economists. Graham was silent on the issue.
* Conley views the defense of America's borders to be a major
national security issue. Graham favors amnesty for illegal aliens.
* Conley said the endless conflict in Afghanistan is harming
the U. S. economy. Graham is oblivious to the fact that the
hundreds of billions spent on nation-building is a major factor in
the current economic crisis in America.
Bob Conley gave the voters a clear choice between Graham's global
interventionism that has busted our budget and Conley's own America
First foreign policy.
We expect this fine debate performance to continue Bob Conley's
momentum in this campaign.
In case you missed it, the debate is online at
http://www.scetv.org/index.php/the_big_picture/debates_entry/october
_11th_us_senate_debate/
SOURCE: Bob Conley for Senate Website
http://bobconleyforsenate.com
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Republican Disaster at Hand
by Timothy P. Carney - Human Events
Outlook
1. An Electoral College landslide is in the offing, paired with
Democratic tsunamis in congressional races.
2. Riding the wave triggered by the economic collapse, Sen.
Barack Obama's adept campaign, and Sen. John McCain's hapless
candidacy, Democrats will come close to 60 seats in the Senate, and
perhaps cross that threshold. In the House, Republicans are
retrenching, trying to prevent Democratic gains of 20 or more.
3. Republicans desperately need some sort of catalyst to turn
things around. The GOP, however, has ceded economic and fiscal
issues to the Democrats by embracing the bailout.
Presidential
Overview: The good news for McCain is this: The election is still
20 days away. The bad news is that none of the tacks he's likely to
take will carry him to victory.
1. Obama's Electoral College lead right now is huge, as almost
all of the swing states have swung into his category. Obama has
significant poll leads in Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, and
Virginia, and has pulled away in New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, and
Pennsylvania. In previously strong McCain states such as Florida,
Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina, the race is now very
tight.
2. While "it's over" has become the resigned refrain of many
Republicans, the race certainly is not over. Three weeks is a long
time, and anything can happen.
3. Still, McCain does not seem to have a clear tack that could
carry him to victory. Assailing Obama's character (by playing up
his alliance with unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers) comes too late.
Americans have already seen Obama in the debates and the
convention, and he came across as serious and trustworthy. McCain,
by playing nice until the fall, missed his chance to define Obama.
4. Can McCain make this a race about national security? It's
hard to imagine the nation's attention diverting from the economic
mess right now, but again, we have nearly three weeks until
Election Day. An al Qaeda terrorist attack timed for the election,
unfortunately, is not unthinkable. That could be what it takes for
McCain to win.
5. The final debate tonight is not McCain's last chance to
change the race, but it's his best chance. Given McCain's charisma
shortcomings, it may take a major Obama stumble to turn the race
around.
Economic
Bailouts: As the Bush Administration wades even deeper into an
ocean of state control over the finance industry, many Republicans
who backed the bailout are beginning to show buyer's remorse.
1. Specifically, backing the $700 bailout, rather than leading a
populist crusade against corporate cronyism and big government,
increasingly looks like a missed opportunity for McCain. With both
presidential candidates taking the side of the Bush Administration
and the Democratic Congress, the bailout has been taken off the
table in the presidential contest. On all remaining economic
battlefronts, Obama is far outperforming McCain.
2. Arguing over what form this newly expanded socialism will
take is not a winning fight for any Republican. Fighting over
economic details is a loser specifically for McCain. Had he taken
the fight to a higher level by resisting Washington's rush to "do
something," McCain might have been able to turn the economy into a
winning issue instead of the clear loser it is today.
3. With the "stabilization" details from the administration
constantly shifting, some lawmakers and lobbyists are racing to
figure out the new rules of the game, but increasingly, this looks
like a hopeless task. Either Obama or McCain will enter the White
House with full discretion to set whatever new rules they want.
This causes trepidation among some Beltway conservatives.
4. Treasury Department official Neel Kashkari, the 35-year-old
Wharton MBA running the bailout operation, has a reputation among
Capitol Hill staff as a "greenie," possessing the same strong of
environmentalist leanings as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Both
Paulson and Kashkari could find a job in an Obama administration.
5. The clearest effect of Washington's vastly expanded role in
our economy: an acceleration of the lobbying boom, and a dramatic
increase in lobbyists' clout. Since 2001, spending on lobbying has
grown at a rate of $200 million per year, with 800 new lobbyists
every year. Expect a serious spike in 2009.
Senate 2008
Top Tier: The economic meltdown and John McCain's struggles have
dragged down poll numbers in all four of the top-tier Senate races.
Democrats currently lead in each of these contests.
1. Former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R-Colo.) is certainly the underdog
in his race against Rep. Mark Udall (D), but he is not out of the
race. October has not been kind to him in the poll numbers, as he
has fallen from within the margin of error in one Rasmussen poll of
700 likely voters. A Suffolk University poll and a Quinnipiac poll
both show Udall with double-digit leads. That margin is inflated,
and Schaffer still looks as if he could pull off the biggest GOP
upset of the year.
2. Supporters of Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) have long held onto
the notion that Sununu is the comeback kid who can never be counted
out. But we're now 20 days from Election Day, and the junior
senator from the Granite State has yet to make his move. He trails
former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen by 5 to 9 points in October's polls. The
economic turmoil has hurt Sununu, and he needs to somehow turn the
crisis into his advantage if he is going to win.
3. The bad economy has tag-teamed with independent former Sen.
Dean Barkley to drag Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) down from his lead
over liberal comedian Al Franken (D). All October polls show
Franken ahead, and Coleman well below 40 percent. This has been a
very fluid race, and Coleman could certainly surge ahead again but,
right now, Franken holds the upper hand.
4. Oddly enough, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) could come out of
this whole thing unscathed. Stevens runs a fair chance of beating
the federal criminal charge he faces, and a jury could acquit the
senator in a week or two. The court plans to finish the trial
before Election Day. An acquittal could boost Stevens to a 20-point
win over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D), while a conviction would
probably catapult Begich to Washington.
Second and Third Tier: Not only are the top-tier races looking
worse for Republicans, a few second- or third-tier challengers have
moved to within striking distance.
1. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) has taken a dip this fall. After
consistently posting 10- to 20-point leads over former State Rep.
Jim Martin (D), Chambliss has not broken 50 percent in about a
month, and his leads are within the margin of error in four of the
last five polls. Martin has hit Chambliss hard for his support of
the $700 billion Wall Street bailout, and it could become the
central issue in the election.
2. Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) knew he would have to work hard to
win reelection, just as he did in 2002. Smith is the only
Republican senator on the West Coast, and he rarely breaks 50
percent in polls. But recently, Smith's numbers have dropped closer
to 40 percent, and State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) has led in
the recent Survey USA and Research 2000 polls.
3. We dismissed the summer polls showing Sen. Elizabeth Dole
(R-N.C.) trailing State Sen. Kay Hagan (D), but as Hagan remains
strong, and Dole remains weak, North Carolina Republicans have
become seriously worried. Since the economic meltdown came to the
forefront, Hagan has lead in every poll but one, posting sizable
leads in many. Dole certainly has the ability to turn things
around, but she doesn't have much time.
4. Only two polls have come in about the Maine Senate race since
mid-September, and they show Sen. Susan Collins (R) well ahead of
Rep. Tom Allen (D). This one could tighten, but if Allen hasn't
surged yet, it's hard to imagine what could push him over the top.
5. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) certainly doesn't benefit from
the current economic turmoil. Former state Commerce Secretary Bruce
Lunsford (D) is staying close in the polls, holding McConnell near
or below 50 percent, and even polling within the margin of error.
Here's the question for McConnell (and the GOP broadly): Can things
really get worse than they are right now? If this is the bottom,
which it might well be, then McConnell will win in November.
6. The strongest Republican open seat is in Nebraska, where
former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) is the favorite over college teacher
Scott Kleeb (D). Johanns still looks like a safe bet to replace
retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel (R).
7. Mississippi is giving Republicans more headaches. Appointed
Sen. Roger Wicker (R) has yet to pull away from former Gov. Ronnie
Musgrove (D) in the special election to fill out the remaining four
years of the current term. We haven't seen a poll in October, and
Wicker might find himself playing catch-up.
8. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) continues to post strong leads over
State Rep. Rick Noriega (D), but hovering around 50 percent, Cornyn
could see a real race in the light of all the bad economic news.
9. We haven't seen a poll out of South Carolina in more than
three weeks, and there's a chance commercial pilot Bob Conley (D)
could pull ahead of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). Conley performed
strongly in a recent debate, hitting Graham and Washington on the
bailout. Graham, tied more closely than any lawmaker to McCain,
could take a bigger hit than most from McCain's struggles.
10. Former Gov. Mark Warner (D-Va.) looks as safe as ever in his
open-seat race against former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R). Indeed, Obama
is polling ahead in this state, and Democrats are poised to pick up
a House seat.
11. Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) is still the prohibitive favorite
over Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) in New Mexico's open-seat Senate
contest.
12. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) looks to be in fine shape against
state Treasurer John Kennedy (R). One potential GOP sleeper race is
State Rep. Joel Dykstra's (R) challenge to Sen. Tim Johnson
(D-S.D.). Dykstra is hitting Johnson hard for opposing tougher
Fannie Mae regulation from his perch on the Banking Committee.
House 2008
Overview: The McCain/economy contagion is spreading to House GOP
candidates -- both incumbents and challengers.
1. Surveying the election battlefield, Republicans have sounded
the retreat, and are scurrying back to their bunkers in hopes of
holding House losses to no more than a dozen, and to protect "safe"
incumbents.
2. Politico reported this week that the National Republican
Congressional Committee has shifted funding from competitive open
seats to previously safe incumbent races. This is an effort to
avoid the surprise defeats they suffered in 2006.
3. The ballast being tossed overboard includes open-seat
candidates Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White in New Mexico and
State Rep. Erik Paulsen in Minnesota, both with decent chances to
retain GOP-held open seats. These candidates can win without NRCC
money, but the committee's retrenchment reveals a party running for
cover with its tail between its legs.
4. A Research 2000 poll showed Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.) 7
points behind arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper (D).
5. Rep. Randy Kuhl (R-N.Y.) trails retired Navy officer Eric
Massa (D) by 7 points in two recent polls, meaning Republicans may
be left with only two House seats in New York State.
6. Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.) looks likely to hang on in his very
Republican district, as recent surveys show him with a double-digit
lead over businessman Chris Hackett (R). Carney's fellow freshman,
Rep. Jason Altmire (D), is also pulling away from former GOP Rep.
Melissa Hart.
7. In Florida, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) and his brother,
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) are both polling below 50% in tough
Miami-area reelection battles, as that state swings towards Obama.
8. Other incumbents taking a hit in recent weeks include Rep.
Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) in the Chicago suburbs and Rep. Steve Chabot
(R-Ohio) in Cincinnati.
9. The NRCC is scrambling to protect Representatives John
Shadegg (Ariz.), Henry Brown (S.C.), Lee Terry (Neb.), and Dan
Lungren (Calif.) according to Politico.
10. The upside for Republicans: Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.), who
won his seat thanks to disgraced Rep. Mark Foley (R), has been
exposed as an adulterer who offered a six-figure buyout to his
mistress. This close race now leans Republican.
Mr. Carney, a contributing editor to HUMAN EVENTS and the senior
reporter for the Evans-Novak Political Report. He is also the
author of "The Big Ripoff: How Big Business and Big Government
Steal Your Money," published by John Wiley & Sons. Read more of his
work at TimothyPCarney.com.
SOURCE: Human Events